Thursday, September 26, 2013

Marc Faber's Highly-Unprofessional Know-It-All Interview

Marc Faber's Highly- Unprofessional Know-It-All Interview 
  Thai TV, September 20, 2013



Their Business Greats Tiger Team

There is little doubt the Marc has a fairly good grasp of the technical issues related to the global financial situatIon. Whether he is right or wrong is another matter. He conveys a strong sense of certitude with regard to his thoughts and opinions. Such an attitude should be expected from an investment promoter. 




The Fed is in a bind and there are signs that the QE program is faltering. As he points out, the ten year treasuries have risen from a low of about 1.5% a year ago, to almost to 3% today. As he says, "that's a 100% increase." Marc believes that the Fed will continue with its QE program with little; if any, tapering for some time, in an meager effort to hold down  low long-bond rates. By now, everyone is aware that a surge in these rates would be devastating to the global financial system and the overbought stock markets. We go along with his view.

He also makes reference to the absurdity of Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian (Turbocharged) economists - the latter apparently proposes fiscal deficits of $5 Trillion to resolve the US's economic problems. While we agree that such a move is unconscionable, Dr. Doom provides us with little insight into what remedies he would alternatively propose.


This lack of a deep understanding of the physical existential forces driving the world's economy is apparent in most of this interview. The very fact that Marc entirely discounts, any and all, participation or insights from academia, and concurrently holds business opinions and views, as the ultimate source of a monopolistic truth, speaks volumes as to the depth and objective quality of Marc's thinking, information, sources and analysis. This negativity further suggests a"know-it-all" attitude bias that tears apart the speaker's credibility, leading us to distrust the balance, integrity and substance of all else that was asserted. To be short, we were taken aback by the utter short-sightedness and arrogance of this remark and related thoughts.


This, of course, deepens our concern and skepticism about such pundits who operate with multiple narrow-minded agendas.  We would prefer a more open, professional approach to information, sources and thinking. Similar to the philosophical thoughts of Socrates: "the only true wisdom is in knowing that you know nothing." And maybe Abraham Lincoln's approach would also be useful to opening a wider discourse of opposing or alternative views for better decisions. Lincoln recognized that all of us have our limitations; so he sought the insights, company and advice of seven or eight folks smarter than himself. Hmm. Maybe even an academic or two?


Marc, we fully recognize and believe that you are entitled to your opinions regarding all these useless academics  - but then again, what do we know?


Dr Peter G Kinesa

September 26, 2013  


Our Humble Academic Bonehead Team   

              






  

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

EXCLUSIVE: Murdoch's NEWS CORP - "NOTHING TO REPORT"

NEWS CORP
Exclusive

“NOTHING TO REPORT”


" I don't see a thing, Doctors"


According to sources close to the matter, International Governments recently required all senior executives and editors at Rupert Murdoch's News Corp to undergo MRI brain scans in an effort to determine why they continue to deny all scientific evidence regarding Climate Change and counter the science with fabrications, falsehoods and propaganda. There apparently was a real fear, in the medical community, that a rare strain of pandemic virus had attacked their truthy prefrontal cortices which is a section located close to the inner brain's hippitatus colon, situated way below the mid-frontal lobes, near the APT orifice. The papers and networks included in the investigation were such notables as "The Wall Street Journal,"  "The Daily," "Financial Post" and  FOX News.

Reports were filed today by the Chief Neurosurgeons at an undisclosed New York clinic; everyone was pleased and ecstatic over the results. As you may have guessed by now, "there was nothing to report" So it is back to business as usual in the happy halls of News Corp, who can again continue to report and make-up scumbag stories based on nothing.

Seriously, countering this fictional reporting is the battle in the Canadian construction industry where tighter legislation is forcing developers to use more wood over concrete in their projects. In their public arguments, expressed in National Advertising, the Concrete Industry rightfully argued that given the increase in extreme weather conditions their product was much more capable of withstanding future severe weather conditions. Pointing to recent flood costs, associated with severe weather attributed to climate change in both Calgary and Toronto, the Insurance Bureau of Canada was also supportive of this industry's position, as follows:   


Read their full reports above or watch the video below. But what should be perfectly clear, that outside the hoaky world of unprofessional tabloid journalism,  real industries and honest people are taking measures to deal with these climate change events. And they make no bones about the fact that it is real and that more can be expected. Remember, they all have real skin in the situation, not just words.  


For now, we have nothing further to report, but ask that you carefully weigh the facts and fiction to draw your own conclusions. Or just call and ask Aunt Katrina or Uncle Sandy, for their views on matters.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 24, 2013


Nothing to report, means there is nothing to worry about or with?

  


  

Saturday, September 21, 2013

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008

FIRST FINANCIAL INSIGHTS: CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008
(Read More)

CREDIT BUBBLE BIGGER THAN 2008 (Also Read Recent "The Telegraph" Article )  How could credit circumstances be worse than 2008? Did we not le...

"Why would you ever trade government guaranteed bonds for highly-levered, riskier, de facto bank equity that poses as a debt instrument? Is there a smell of personal interest here?" 
International Bank Regulator - 2013

Did you ever wonder who was selling all those long treasury bonds to the Fed? Where was all that money going? Bonds? Investments? Bonuses?  Well, gleaning from the content, in both the FFI and The Telegraph articles, the money trail looks pretty clear. Here is what we make of it, in a nutshell.

Big Banks sell their bonds to the Fed, then take the proceeds and buy other Banks' debt, that may be converted to equity should the other Bank's ratio fall, say, below 10%. An event that is almost certain to occur once rates spike upwards and all the Banks have to mark to market monetary assets. Marked to market accounting of these assets is sure to result in write-offs that correspondingly affects each Bank's capital structures. These debt instruments are simply a clever way to inject capital into the banks, so that they remain solid even as the rest of us suffer when interest rates rise.


This is also what you call a "Country Club Bail-Out' that quietly escapes the attention and scrutiny of  the media, pundits, public and, of course, our brilliant politicians. So under the radar, Uncle Ben is shelling-out up to $85 Billion monthly, to shore up Banks prior to the much anticipated interest-rate driven write-offs - "without congressional authorization." Nice trick. What's worse? Even if you explained this simple shell game to those political wizards, sadly there is no guarantee they would show even a slight flicker of understanding. 

For the stability of the financial system this is, however, a good move and should avoid the recording of losses by Banks provided that the conversion price provides for an equal dollar for dollar exchange of securities. Afterwards though, the capital positions of these Banks could be exposed to market fluctuations - so it is still fraught with risk issues down the road.


Banksters should also be personally happy with this short-term bail-out insurance, provided to protect their loans, businesses and  huge bonus entitlements  Who loses? Well, in the end it's the taxpayers who are quietly bailing out the Banks, without anyone being the wiser simply because they are doing it ahead of time with an invisible financial wand. Real estate will also get clobbered, unless owners have hedged their positions; say, by shorting long bonds. And long-term the economy and future generations will get to pay the biggest price!    

Just clever, sneaky or magical finance? Or fraudulent tricks? Hmm.


Dr Peter G Kinesa

September 21, 2013  


The Real QE Magic... 
Is it DEBT or EQUITY? 


   

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Who's Planning World's End - Stephen Hawking?



"What! Now they even started a committee?"

Do you ever have that sneaky suspicion with all the news about climate change, biosphere collapse, financial instability, political strife and war, overpopulation and social upheaval that the world is soon coming to an end? Who ever really thought it could go on forever anyhow? So if you do have those sinking feelings, your thoughts are in line with Stephen Hawking and other "Big Brains" who are getting together to formulate plans for the end of the world.

This article (linked above) from The Independent lists the members of this elite committee along with its agenda of  possible end-game scenarios. Two things are obvious to our "Little Brains" firstly, is the people who are missing on this committee, and secondly, the short list of scenarios. We could add at least ten more possible end-games stories. And more likely ones too. .

That in itself speaks volumes - but we hope these guys are smart enough to realize that once they design their end of the world plan - don't forget to pass it around to the rest of us.

Gotta hand to our great leaders - but never forget they are the same one's that got us here!

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 18, 2013

P.S. By the way, had the opportunity to discuss this topic with a poet friend. And we both agreed that the problem with this exercise is that they are concerned about singular events and not processes i.e. sequential serial events. In other words,why should time be relevant to the expected outcome being studied? Anyway he observed,  "because that was the road less travelled, and that would make all the difference!" 

Ahhh Poets... What do they know? 


What if there are aliens? And they're here already?

  

  
















   

Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Professor Erle C Ellis - Miracles to Save Japan and World Economy

Professor Erle C Ellis - Miracles to Save Japan and World Economy


(Read More) 


Fukushima Nuclear power plant  in Japan


This above linked article from The Guardian underscores our deep concerns about the world's third largest economy. The country is shutting down its last nuclear plant for maintenance and is unlikely to see a prompt return to this energy source any time soon. Maybe 2015. That means greater reliance on imports such as liquid natural gas  leading to soaring energy costs for business and consumers. Just another blow to an already long-ravaged economy.

This also affects export trade as costs will certainly rise. In order  to compete and maintain trade volumes, the yen will undergo a further period of downward pressures, but this creates a vicious circle as import cost will concurrently rise. Japan is starting to show the same symptoms as other resource strapped nations including the incumbent social unrest.

One final point, this all has nothing to do with overpopulation, resource scarcity, peak oil, climate change nor collapsing biodiversity according to the renowned Professor Erle C Ellis, University of Maryland. Predicting based on local sources that Japan is just moments from building a new top-super-secret technology that converts radioactive water into oil and other minerals. A miracle device that will allow for further exponential growth into a bright new future. Ellis believes that more miracles create the economic path to future prosperity   

Otherwise, the Japanese miracle is now just a long old memory!

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 17, 2013


"Miracles - take at look at me now!"

Professor, Erle C Ellis, PHD




Thursday, September 12, 2013

#BBC News - Climate Change Pictures

(Read More)

Woolly Mammoth

We Remember These Guys?

As they say, pictures can be worth a thousand words. So I will let them do the talking.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 12, 2013  


Who will remember?

TOP ECONOMIC GRAPH - USGS GROUNDWATER : There is No Fracking Water?



Annual groundwater withdrawal estimates by water-use class from the Death Valley regional flow system, 1913 through 1998. Graphic: USGS / San Juan et al., 2010

Imagine down the road one generation is going to have to decide between whether to use and spoil groundwater for fracking oil or irrigation and farming purposes, and thus food supply. Groundwater is a key ingredient in both processes. And looking at the above graph it is apparent that the amount being used for non-agricultural reasons has been rising over the past four decades, according to this USGS report. The full report is linked above for your study.

The other obvious concern that the chart brings out; how much groundwater is there? As the population and various commercial needs grow when does demand outstrip possible supply? Right now, we do not have or see any clear answers to these questions, but hopefully someone does have them before we reach that point. Then, of course, who will decide whether you eat or drive? Hmm...

So whether it's the extinction of pollinating bugs or the exhaustion of groundwater, it looks like farming is about to become much less productive in the years ahead, despite the growing number of mouths it will be expected to feed. And that's not even taking into account what effects may come from climate change - starting with less rainfall. 

One might add - so what's all the fracking excitement about?

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 12, 2013 


You Decide!

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Dr. David Suzuki - Climate Change Denial?





Whom do we trust?
THIS GUY...


Who do you believe regarding climate change? Who wins the climate debate? Science? Business? Or Politicians? Common sense tells us that scientists should present more objective findings and conclusions. Whereas the latter two groups have tarnished reputations for portraying reality in a way that is biased towards their own vested interests. Put simply - they have no credibility.

But science itself is not perfect as methods, observations and conclusions may be flawed leading to bad information and resultant decisions. So we cannot accept science at face value as well. What to do?

Our best answer to this dilemma is based on applied concepts of corroboration and logic.

Logically the polluting chemicals, heat and radioactive outputs of our human economic and social activities must have some impact on the environment in various ways. That's just a straightforward physical cause and effect linkage. Let's not forget too that the climate is a dynamic state entity - it has always been in some form of change through-out time. Clearly, these are both logical pluses supporting climate-change proponents. 

There are two forms of corroboration to consider; personal experience and third party information. Most of us by now have experienced some displeasures from the possible consequences of global warming, be it heat waves, storms or extreme cold. Further evidence comes from various global media sources reflecting increased frequency and trends  in temperature increases  major storms, floods, wildfires, insect populations, glacial shrinkage, on and on around the world. These two types of corroboration overwhelming suggest that climate-change proponents are correct.

In summary, whether we apply logical common sense or corroborative evidence techniques, we come up with one obvious answer Add in the long history and discrediting character of climate-change deniers, then this becomes an open and shut case. Leading to remaining questions of how bad is it and what should we expect when?

Who will you believe? 

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 10, 2013
   




...OR THIS GUY?

"Believe me David, your scientists have it all wrong..."



Monday, September 9, 2013

#Fukushima LEAKS - #BBC News: Japan to Build ICE WALL?

(Read More)


Graphic: How an 'ice wall' could work

Real Plans - Not Kidding!


As promised, we are just going to keep an eye on this story, as what happens here could have serious economic implications on a already struggling Japanese economy. And when things get real desperate how ridiculous could things get? Well, can you believe that Japan is seriously starting to look at an ice wall as the first line of defense against the radioactive leaks -that are actually getting worse according to this BBC article.That is sure to have every one running back for more Sushi next week.

Anyway we could not help but come up with a few more engineering solutions to resolve this problem:

1) Build a Giant Water Vacuum - Suck up all the radioactive water; bottle it in containers that you sink in the ocean near underpopulated areas. Hoover systems have preliminary drawings underway. 

2) Construct a Floating Island - Move Fukushima on to the specially-designed floating island and then have it towed into the middle of the ocean somewhere safe. Wrap it up in a radioactive-protective-plastic suit cover, and then sink it. Italian engineers are apparently drafting this brainwave.

3) Install Intergalactic Anti-gravity Barge - This barge is placed under the whole Fukushima reactor site then transported into space where it is jettisoned  in a way so not to return back to earth. We hope! Our friends at NASA say they have a  prototype, built for Detroit, available for testing. 

While we had our comedy team come up with these zany hair-brained ideas  -  who knows, maybe one these programs will trigger a thought that moves them towards an effective engineering solution? Oh yeah, we forgot to mention another bright idea we had  - Build Ice Walls!  


Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 9, 2013


Top Secret Intergalactic Barge 
" Space Disposal XZ239L2"

  




   

Friday, September 6, 2013

MORE #BUGONOMICS - UK Bee Crisis!

(Read More)


Not Again?


One cannot stress enough the urgency of this systemic issue that has the potential to lead to wide-spread drops in food production. From butterflies to bees  this is not a problem that is localized to one city, nation or continent. And it goes without saying that the loss of these pollinators could lead to more than just a deep economic depression - the potential for famine, social unrest and geo-political instability comes attached.

A few weeks back Bugonomics may have been out of sight and out of mind, but it has hit the leading headlines of the international press with a vengeance, both in North America and Europe. We sense that the other continents are not immune to this issue, as well. 

More than the eloquence of Churchill will be required to bring the force needed to wrestle this almost invisible enemy to the ground. Let's hope that it may be contained to just a gathering storm!


Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 30th, 1938


"BUGS FOR OUR TIME"
September 30,1938



Thursday, September 5, 2013

#California Smoke Gets in Your Eyes


Smoke from the Rim Fire

NASA Satellite View

Earlier we posted an important climate economic graph reflecting the upward shift in temperatures in six California regions - 1950 to 2010. If there are any doubters out there who think that a warmer climate is not causing displacements and health hazards to human conditions then they are certainly missing the tides of what may come. Major wildfires such as Yosemite pose not only health and living hazards, but the economic costs associated with containment and prevention may become overwhelming for a State already struggling with its finances.

And the wildfire damage also leads to further erosion in the quality of top soil. This means when the rains do come the coastal mountains respond by covering the scenic PCH with tons of fallen earth. Again giving rise to more costs to be born as the  sequential consequences of a warming climate   

Furthermore, fears of fire triggered by the smallest ember could lead to stricter regulations on campfires, barbecues, fireworks and maybe even smoking of any sort.These regulations would also affect other industries, commerce and tourism. At this point, no one knows what to anticipate as the climate's rising temperatures makes many areas much dryer. 

For sure, if conditions persist, the State will not be able escape deep economic consequences in the years ahead. Adding another concern to our list of non-financial metrics.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 5, 2013



  "On a dark desert highway, cool wind in my hair
Warm smell of colitas, rising up through the air..
 Welcome to..."
Eagles, Lyrics Hotel California

   

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Top Economic Graph "CALIFORNIA STEAMING"

(Read More)

Summertime (June-August) maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures have increased between 1950 and 2010 for each of California's six climate regions. Graphic: CalEPA / OEHHA 

Here again we can look at key non-financial metrics that dig deeper into the wealth of an economy. California is already plagued by financial woes as budgetary deficits have brought the state to the brink many times. It is dancing on thin ice and requires the environment and climate to co-operate, if there is any hope of repairing fiscal issues. Not likely, as these climate graphs indicate.

Since 1950, the min and max temperatures have been increasing in all six regions in the state. Warmer temperatures means more wildfires as well as poorer growing conditions for agriculture, a major export from the state. This also means the supply of water will become more critical to serve both local fire-fighting and agricultural needs. This can only mean higher costs that will get passed on to food production; in turn consumers.

So, with this in mind we should keep a focused eye on the number and size of wildfires given their far-reaching economic implications within and outside the state. Hopefully, the Santa Ana winds don't make surfers and surfing also a past-time similar to those of California sun-bathers from millions of years ago.

Or, I wish they ought to be... 

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 4, 2013


Land of the Endless Summer?


Monday, September 2, 2013

#JAPAN - Fukushima; OLYMPICS ANYBODY?



Image: Fukushima

2020 Olympic Site?

We are going to continue to follow this story and post informative and insightful articles. Clearly there are more events, concerns and implication that should fall out here. The linked story warns us about the radioactive Ocean plume that may hit North American shores by 2014.  We have other concerns such as food exports, travel, fish-stock and even the 2020 Olympics. 

An omen of things to come - as athletes start to practice in specially-designed suits.  

Dr Peter G Kinesa
September 2, 2013  

Who needs a torch?

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