Thursday, February 28, 2013

Is France Business Hell - Against Crony Capitalism

Is France Business Hell?

Actually, I don't know if it is or isn't,  for I have never had the opportunity to do business with the Devil. What we do know is that the breakdown in civil safety nets, contracts and trust - leads to social unrest; and in turn political upheaval; and finally geo-political engagements and hostilities. Europe has a long history of strife amoung its member countries and most people foolishly think that today things are now different.

We don't. For in desperate times, caused by water, food and materail shortages, unemployment, overpopulation, climate change and economic instability, desperate people do desperate things. So just add France to the long list of countries that are showing signs that are now well past "peak prosperity" and are now heading towards the social-political-economic graveyard. Where their cities will look like Detroit, and their beaches host more fishermen than  tourists.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 28, 2013

Bonjour - Mr. Satan!

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Marc Faber : Buy Gold To Protect Against The Next Crisis

Marc Faber : Buy Gold To Protect Against The Next Crisis

Oh My Gosh! Why all the Bugginess over Gold? It does nothing for our real economy, nothing to assure our on-going subsistence and expends currency from the real wealth of the planet. A net negative to planetary wealth.

Marc in this telephone interview is again taking on a senior role at the Pearly Gates, by saying or suggesting two things. Gold is insurance against systemic risk. And investors should hold up to 25% of their portfolio assets in gold. There is no way on earth that he can predict or state this just based on past events. The future is filled with a vast number of permutations, as regards the possibilities and possibilities of outcomes. One is that the price gold collapses more that everything else for any number of reasons. To say gold is some form of insurance against anything is - JUST PLAIN STUPID!

That said,obviously the 25% gold allocation is also not so wise for non-speculative portfolios.

When the crap really hits the fan, folks are going to be thinking more about gas, water, food and medicine. Things get pretty basic.
But let's not get into the prediction game here.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 26, 2013

" Peter, Gold Is Insurance Against Systemic Risk!" - GOD

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

What could go wrong with the housing recovery in 2013?

What Could go Wrong with the US Housing Recovery in 2013?

Lots. Read and analyze these charts for yourself in the linked blog. Housing bubbles, particularly like the kind leading up to 2008 meltdown, do not correct themselves in just a few short years. This is at least a decade long struggle, that will be further hindered by increases in rates at some point, collapsing all asset values. And hence, all forms of construction.

Then there's the ripple effects on renovations, big box retail, industry employment and so on. This is a huge hangover for Main Street, caused by he biggest party of drunken Wall Street sailors in history. Yet, NO ONE WENT TO JAIL...

Ain't that America. Little pink houses for you and me.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 25, 2013

Ain't that America, for you and me?

Friday, February 22, 2013

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - Jim Rogers:Facebook Is not an Investment, It's a Waste of Time

INVESTORS' INSIGHTS - February 18, 2013

"I told you we should LISTEN -"

Failing to listen. The list of corporate failures that can ultimately be blamed on this seemingly simple, but so often overlooked human attribute, has draged down so many of the once great and mighty. Reminding all of us, of the costs associated with thinking we know it all - when we are drunk in our current success. When in truth, the only thing that we can ever certainly know in this deterministic world  - is that we know nothing . 

So we continue to humbly listen, again and again and again.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 21,2013  

Jimmy in this phone conversation says he is neither long nor short Facebook; he is simply just not investing. In investment parlance this means, he thinks the stock is garbage and would not touch it with a ten-foot pole. We agree.

First, Facebook ascribes to one of the worst American business practices and has little "human touch" in its business model. American businesses that fail on the world stage are often swept away by global competion because they do not have a High Touch with their customers. Any company that does not have a real person available to assist customers with service issues is doomed to fail - it happens all the time. The first rule of business success: "Listen, listen, listen, and then when you have heard enough, listen again and again and again " 

And the second rule that follows: Don't let your accountants run the business - need we say more? 

Second, its software is not intuitive, particularly for business, and again faces customer service challenges that will turn this market off in the early going. This market is where the real money is made.  They will not return once they have been turned off.

Facebook faces powerful copycat competition from the likes of Google, Twitter, Microsoft and others, who have other complimentary platforms where the combined functionalities of hardware and software configurations create synergies that could easily see Facebook's consumer markets stolen. Moreover, these powerful competitors have a strong presence and trust in the more lucrative commercial markets that are critical to long-term success and profits. We don't see a lot of businesses tying their destinies to what is perceived be to a kid's fad and consumer product. 

It is unlikely that Facebook can hold its valuations. The markets may give it a couple years, at most, to generate commensurate profits. Right now, that appears highly unlikely considering the tough competition in its most lucrative markets.

We go beyond Jimmy and expect this puppy to sink well below $10 in the next 12 to 18 months. More so, if interest rates climb in this period. So don't waste your time or your money on the long side of this hyped-up generational fad.

First Financial Insights
February 18, 2013

High Tech minus High Touch, Spells Disaster 

Detroit Continues Its Descent into the World of Mad Max

Detroit Continues Its Descent into the World of Mad Max



Want to look into the future? America's future? The global future? Then look no further than Detroit. Or Newark, Buffalo. Akron, New Orleans or many other American cities. And we can ask so many questions? Like why do they look like Third World nations? Is this really the richest country on Earth? Or how's about a simple; What happened to America?

If anything tells us that the metrics used by economists; measures such as GDP, are meaningless as a means of managing real world activties, then these everyday examples of inner city decay, should prove the point beyond any doubt. Sure it is well documented that Americans migrated to the cozy suburbs miles from the cities, as the automobile provided a means of escape. But add to this, the stripping away of the industrial heartland by Walmart and China, the shifting to a service-based economy, and the conversion of homes into ATM machines; these all created and contibuted to this civil destruction. So the crabs that are now left in the inner-city barrel, have  little hope of rising above theses dark depressed streets of despair - the streetcar named desire does not travel their anymore. Stellaaaa...

Some believe that these cities will be revived when gas prices drive the automobile to its inevitable extinction. But will the jobs return  to these cities? Will the manufacturing base return back from China? Unlikely, as the scarcity of  raw materials is going to make any sort of manufacturing anywhere on this planet difficult. In the end, the only thing still missing from this permanent picture of the American Dream and Global future is - MAX!

And how sad, this all is...

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 21, 2013   

Who will run our cities?


Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

Marc Faber: Invest Overseas, The Fed Party Is Over

What's in a number anyway? Faber says the FED balance sheet is over $3 trillion. However, the US government owes about $14 trillion, thusly, putting the total US government balance sheet at $14 trillion number. Does it include the FED's balance sheet? Actually, I don't know right now.

But, I can report what the legendary fixed income guru - Bill Gross; PIMCO, estimates. He puts total US government debt at a figure of  over $100 trillion. His number also includes all future payments and contingencies on a present value basis. Put another way, this is the value of all known oil reserves that are set to exhaust in about 40 years.

Ever wonder if this debt can ever be repaid ? Do not spend a lot of time thinking about it.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 20, 2013

What do you mean we're broke?  

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Walmart says February month to date sales are “a total disaster.”

Walmart says February month to date sales are “a total disaster.”

Bad, bad, bad news. And not just for Chinamart (sic) but for the "Chinamerica" economy. It means that things are tightening up all around, so there is bound to be an effect on all sectors of the economy, including unemployment levels. Following this back to Chinese manufacturing you can expect some easing in commodity prices as their manufacturing demand and output slows.

This will also give the Fed more reasons not to fool around with its easing policies or change rates. The real big question now is: what lies ahead? Was February just an anomaly or is it the start of a trend? I suspect that the US consumer is pretty much tapped out so there is more in the offing.

This type of news is likely to trigger a sell-off in stocks, particularly if the trend continues into ensuing months. Here's a kicker. What if prices continue to rise regardless due to shortages in raw materials? We should all pay attention to this early warning signal and heed its implications - there is a smell of troubles to come.

I will be watching...

Dr. Peter G Kinesa

February 19, 2013 

Why are the people so upset?

Filipino super-typhoon an ominous warning of climate change impact

click above

If anyone has any doubts about climate change and its impacts, you should read thsi article from The Guardian/ If you can still sleep at nights - you probaly still don't get it or you are enjoying your medications.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
Febraury 19, 2013

Wake up call ???

Destroyed banana trees


Sunday, February 17, 2013



Dearest Friends,

In early February, I finally got a week off and had the opportunity to fly back to visit my old Alma mater, the world famous Nauru School of Keynesian Economics. Named, of course, after one of its most famous students and, founded by Adam Smith, long before his tenure in Scotland. Many of the world's leading Keynesian Economists, and Economic Nobel Prize Winners, have passed through its arches of higher(sic) learning

Anyway, here's me on the beach with a few of my co-ed friends and colleagues, enjoying the refreshing weather and tropical views. Also, there is a photo shot of my good friend from school, Dr Nigel Tapatughamans, fishing on the beach  - who for years was the country's leading Keynesian Economist; and was also once considered for a Nobel Prize, when Nauru was a working miracle. Indeed, not so long ago, Nauru had the highest income and wealth per capita in the world.

Seriously, there is a very important message here that should not escape raw wisdoms.The economic history of Nauru is a lesson of utmost meaning, for it foreshadows the fate of the larger planet that continues to apply insane Keynesian Economic ideas, despite real physical and mathematical constraints. Just Nuts -   

Watch some of these videos below, they should be a mandatory part of  curriculum's in all schools of business and economics. Better yet; all schools. As it demonstrates, in no uncertain terms, where the human enterprise is headed globally, should it continue along the conventional economic path. However, in all likelihood it may not even attain the simple paradise of Nauru; as geo-political tensions could interrupt even this tranquil destination.

So please, please take the time to view one or more of these videos and explore further how one small nation magnifies the trajectory of the human condition  should we continue to foolishly believe and practice the same old theories that many of us learned at Nauru's World-Famous "School of Keynesian Economics" 

BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY,  pass, tweet, share, post and show this video archive to as many friends, families, colleagues, strangers and foes as you can. So that they too, may join a larger awakening and understanding, of where all this Keynesian economics and unbridled consumptive growth leads us. 

For these are certainly not the stairways to heaven that we have all bought into...

All the Very Best,

Dr. Peter G Kinesa
February 17, 2013 

P.S. This histroric post was actually the first ever blogged by First Financial Insights,(May 27, 2011) defining a theme that focuses on an economic reality inclusive of physics and exponential mathematics: not hypothetical abstractions built within subjective contexts - with the clear view of avoiding the outcomes of Nauru and Easter Island - with the clear view of sustaining the human enterprise for as long as possible - with the clear view of avoiding the premature human extinction, that Keynesian Economics will ultimately lead us to. 

And then you judge, as we let the facts and numbers speak for themselves. 

Mother Earth asks us one simple thing:


Beautiful Vacation
Great Tropical 

    When we run out of….OIL?
  there’s Tourism and Fishing

First Financial Insights
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Ó Materials subject to copyright First Financial Insights Inc, 2011


Paul Krugman - Currency War Confusions

Paul Krugman - Currency War Confusion  OR Just the Same Old BS
(click here)

The New York Times, February 15, 2013 

Why do I state over and over again that all the leading economist just don't get it? In fact, they are all wrong? Take this declaration, phrased as a question by Paul Krugman in his OP/ED, and you will understand why I remain appalled at how these leading experts show a lack of foresight or understanding of the human predicament. The blatant discounting of the laws of physics and exponential mathematics drives one to frustration. And I could go on and on and on...

Enough weeping, here it is:

"Expansionary policy is what the world needs, so why is this a bad thing?"

Because it is the last thing the world needs. The world does not need to use its scarce non-renewable resources more rapidly. The world does not need to grow its population and feed more hungry mouths. The world does not need to add further pollutants into the fragile bio-sphere.The world does need, as a result, to pollute and use its fresh water supplies and contract the long-term capacity of its agricultural lands - lands needed to feed those expanding populations. In short Paul, the last thing the world needs is an expansionary policy because it is a very bad thing that accelerates humanity's march towards a premature extinction.

Of course all of these things are just caused by the constraints created  by physics, biology, mathematics -  those technical concerns. They cannot be negotiated, legislated or dreamed away, so why should the contraints of these constructs have anything to do with economics? Gets me! 

To tell everyone a personal secret - I spend many late restless nights in bed wondering two things; one, do these so-called experts really not understand the inter-face and integration that exists with the constraints of science, logic and mathematics, and their resultant consequences? Or two; if they do, do they have any guilt or human remorse about  promoting and writing all their outdated "Bullshit" that leads humanity into the insane abyss of self-destruction. I wonder.

Again, just telling it like is.

Dr Peter G Kinesa
February 16, 2013

"From Madison Square Gardens, in NewYork, this is Peter Kinesa telling it..."

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